1.0 Abstract
This paper examines the fragmented nature of global climate politics as a result of the declining post World War II liberal world order. In this paradigm, we evaluate India’s utilisation of its geopolitical autonomy to navigate the tension between western normative climate demands and the developmental imperatives of the Global South. The study employs qualitative geopolitical analysis to investigate the crisis of multilateralism within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and assesses India’s increasing engagement in issue specific minilateral discourse platforms such as the G20 and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). The findings show that the traditional rules-based liberal order anchored in Western leadership and institutional power is increasingly contested by protectionism, geopolitical rivalry and alternative developmental models with climate governance emerging as a primary area of contention. Within this transitioning framework, India positions itself as a critical bridge actor advocating for equity, climate justice and common but differentiated responsibilities while pursuing domestic green growth and strategic global partnerships. This paper demonstrates that India’s strategic autonomy has evolved from passive non-alignment into a proactive diplomatic doctrine aimed at fostering a more inclusive, multipolar governance structure. It concludes that India’s diplomatic balancing act is imperative for sustaining cooperative global climate action whilst safeguarding developmental sovereignty and long-term institutional stability.
Keywords: Global Climate Governance, Liberal World Order, Strategic Autonomy, Climate Justice, Multipolarity
2.0 Acknowledgement
Every research paper, while seemingly a collection of data and arguments, is ultimately a story of curiosity, guidance, and the collective effort of a community. This work is no exception. I must first acknowledge the ground beneath my feet. This paper was nurtured within the academic environment of the Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University. This department is more than just an institutional foundation; it is a crucible of critical thought where we are constantly challenged to look beyond the obvious. The department’s commitment to engaging deeply with the shifting tides of global politics provided the atmosphere I needed to explore complex ideas in geopolitics and beyond.
To my mentors and the faculty members, thank you for being the architects of my understanding. I am deeply grateful for your guidance, which was often less about giving answers and more about asking the right questions. Your constructive feedback and intellectual support helped me navigate the labyrinth of regional diplomacy, refining my conceptual framework from a rough idea into a coherent study. Scholarship is a conversation across time, and I am indebted to the scholars and policymakers whose works I have drawn upon. Their prior explorations into digital infrastructure and regional integration laid the path that I have attempted to walk a few steps further. I also thank my friends and peers who walked this road alongside me. Thank you for the coffee-fueled debates, the thoughtful engagements, and the patience to listen to my endless ramblings about climate politics and multilateral partnerships. Your discussions enriched this work in ways that footnotes can never fully capture.
Most personal of all is the debt I owe to my home. To my parents and family: you have been the silent, steady anchor in the often turbulent sea of academic pursuit. Your sustained encouragement and unwavering belief in me have been the quiet force propelling me forward, long before a single word of this paper was written.
Finally, while this work stands on the shoulders of many, the steps taken and the stumbles made are our alone. Any remaining errors or limitations in this study remain our sole responsibility.
Soham Das and Tulana Ghosh
First year Postgraduate students,
Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University
Table of Contents
1.0 Abstract 1
2.0 Acknowledgement 2
3.0 The Structural Crisis of the Liberal International Order and the Genesis of the Climate Paradox 3
4.0 Frameworks of Polarity and the Shift toward Multipolarity 4
5.0 The Evolution of India’s Climate Diplomacy: From Defensiveness to Strategic Statecraft 5
6.0 Historical Milestones in India’s Climate Diplomacy 6
7.0 The Domestic Foundation: India’s Green Growth Statistics and 2025 Milestones 7
8.0 State-Wise Distribution of Renewable Energy 8
9.0 The Paradox of Global Carbon Budgets and Historical Responsibility 9
10.0 India as a Bridge Actor: Leadership in G20, QUAD, and BRICS 10
10.1 G20 Successes and the Green Development Pact 11
10.2 Strategic Minilateralism: The QUAD and ISA 11
10.3 BRICS 2026: Redefining Multipolar Sustainability 12
11.0 Reforming the Global Financial Architecture and MDBs 13
12.0 The Philosophy of “The India Way” and Multipolar Justice 14
13.0 Synthesis of Strategic Autonomy and Global Responsibility 14
14.0 Challenges and Future Outlook: Navigating Geopolitical Volatility 15
3.0 The Structural Crisis of the Liberal International Order and the Genesis of the Climate Paradox
The contemporary political environment around the world is marked by the imminent decay of the liberal world order, post World War II, the regime that was once held in place by the institutional hegemony of the West alongside normative consensus (Steinberg, 2022). This international system, which has mostly made world relations the way they have been in the past decades, is becoming one caught in long-standing contention where its most basic rules do not find universal sharing and respect. According to scholarly reflection, it would be possible to say that this liberal international order may be on its deathbed, possibly confronted by the surfacing of national populism, geopolitical contention, and the development of alternative forms of development that would not follow Western-specific liberalism. In this shift, global climate governance has become a main venue of debate and conflict with such an inherent paradox of the Climate Order.
This dilemma lies in the conflicting interests of the global ecological need and the national sovereignty of the nation in terms of development. On the one hand, the science of the necessary provides an urgent and radical decrease in carbon footprint to remain within the planetary frame; on the other, the politics of the possible is characterized by short-term interests, historic wrongs, and the global South requirements of development. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the sole international platform of concerted action, but this is in a hollowing multilateralism and systemic heterogeneity environment (Leal-Arcas, 2025). With the process of globalization and the decay of the traditional Western poles as policies under both liberal and imperialist hegemonies over time, the global regulation of governance and regulation has shifted between the aligned pattern (in the liberal hegemony) and the misaligned pattern (between the competing actors and processes) of global governance and regulation. Usually, the term collapse of the liberal order is characterized not as a bang but instead as a gradual fracture, which is said to recall the image created by T.S. Eliot, who does not see the world eventually breaking, but breaking with a whimper. The defeat of the promise of universal prosperity by the post-1989 world has resulted in the backlash of economic openness and the emergence of retrogressive unions (Conway et al. 2025). The old rules-based order is rapidly replaced in this disjointed world by the cliques and mini-lateral forums of dialogue, like the G20 and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), where the cooperation is motivated by the interests of specific issues.
4.0 Theoretical Frameworks of Polarity and the Shift toward Multipolarity
In order to comprehend the ongoing shift, the basic theories of international relations need to be dealt with. The allocation of power in the international system is referred to as polarity, which explains cooperation and conflict patterns. The substitution of the unipolar situation of the 1990s, where the US was dominant, with the multipolar situation is just the natural result of the process of economic globalization and regional power claims (Mehdi, 2025). According to structural realism by Kenneth Waltz, multipolar systems that are characterized by the presence of multiple great powers, such as China, India, and Russia, are likely to result in the formation of changing alliances and increased uncertainty.
Within a multipolar order, different actors tend to hold difference perception of material capabilities, and their comprehension of polarity is affected by the historical legacies and the capacity of agents to influence the structure of the world. In India, multipolarity is not just an economic change; it is a strategic chance to cease being a balancing power and become a leading power (Aslam, 2025). This can be depicted in the Indian way, where strategic autonomy is no longer understood as seclusion but separatism in decision-making and choice of partners by considering national interest.
The following table contextualizes the theoretical shifts in global order and their implications for climate governance:
| Order Model | Leading Powers | Governance Logic | Climate Strategy |
| Liberal International Order | USA & Western Europe | Rules-based, universal norms, open markets. | Universal mitigation targets, top-down mandates. |
| Bipolar (Cold War) | USA & Soviet Union | Ideological blocs, security competition. | Negligible focus; early environmental movements. |
| Unipolar Moment | USA | Hegemonic stability, “End of History.” | Integration of climate into liberal trade/diplomacy. |
| Multipolar (Current) | USA, China, India, Russia, EU | Strategic autonomy, minilateralism, pragmatism. | Differentiated pathways, climate justice, CBDR. |
5.0 The Evolution of India’s Climate Diplomacy: From Defensiveness to Strategic Statecraft
Engagement of India in international climate politics has undergone a tremendous transformation in the past 30 years. Previously, Indian policy was largely defensive and based on the criteria of developing sovereignty and distributive justice. In the initial years of the UNFCCC, India catalyzed the idea that the developed countries had a historical obligation to reduce emissions, and thus they had the obligation to make binding cuts and additionally provide funds and technology to the Global South (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2026).
Especially before the 2009 Copenhagen Summit, India has been called a spoiler or even a stonewaller because of its lack of agreement to commit to reducing its emissions. This was based on the fact that domestic protection was a domestic priority and that included the basic amenities such as electricity, shelter, and livelihood to millions of citizens (Rahman & Pingali, 2024). A change, however, started taking place through the introduction of a National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) by India in 2008, in which the domestic discourse was no longer an environment versus development, but rather it has changed to environmental and development.
6.0 Historical Milestones in India’s Climate Diplomacy
The progression of India’s role in global climate governance can be tracked through several pivotal shifts:
- Phase I: Defensive Equity (1992–2008): Focused on protecting the “right to development” and insisting on the strict application of CBDR (German Council on Foreign Relations, 2026). India resisted any commitments that could impede its economic growth.
- Phase II: Transitional Realism (2009–2014): Recognition of climate vulnerability and the “co-benefits” of climate action. India began to frame environmental policy as a tool for improving operational efficiency.
- Phase III: Proactive Leadership (2015–2021): The launch of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and the commitment to ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Prime Minister Modi’s “Panchamrit” commitments at COP26 (Net Zero by 2070) signaled a new era of global responsibility.
- Phase IV: Multipolar Strategic Statecraft (2022–Present): Utilizing its G20 and BRICS leadership to shape a “human-centric” world order and pushing for reforms in multilateral development banks (MDBs).
The climate diplomacy of India is no longer merely about the emission targets, but the decarbonization geopolitics of the fractious world (Barik, 2026). Using resilience, sovereignty, and alliances with technology as a frame to approach climate action, India does not get caught in Western traditions of forcing their mandate but does its share in finding solutions to world problems.
7.0 The Domestic Foundation: India’s Green Growth Statistics and 2025 Milestones
The performance of India as a worldwide leader on climate issues is linked intrinsically with its national performance. India hit the historic milestones of the energy transition by the end of 2025, overcoming its international commitments years earlier than previously thought possible. These successes prove the idea that the Indian advocacy on climate justice is supported by concrete local efforts. By September 30, 2025, the total installed electric generation had exceeded 500 gigawatts (GW) 1 of India. More importantly, renewable sources of energy, large hydro, and nuclear power no longer represent a minority in the entire power mix of the country and now contribute over fifty percent of it (Emblemsvåg, 2025). This is a plus as India has already exceeded its COP26 target of 50 percent non-fossil fuel installed capacity by 2030 by five years.
The following table provides a detailed breakdown of India’s power capacity as of late 2025:
| Source Type | Capacity (GW) | Percentage of Total |
| Total Installed Capacity | 509.64 | 100% |
| Non-Fossil Fuel Sources | 262.74 | 51.55% |
| Fossil Fuel-Based Sources | 246.90 | 48.45% |
| Solar Power (within RE) | 132.85 | 26.07% |
| Wind Power (within RE) | 53.99 | 10.59% |
| Large Hydro (within Non-Fossil) | 50.35 | 9.88% |
| Nuclear (within Non-Fossil) | 8.78 | 1.72% |
According to the statistics provided by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), 2025 was the year that achieved the greatest annual growth in India over the course of its energy transition journey. India is projected to have added about 44.5 GW of renewable capacity in the period between January and November of 2025 and that of 2026, almost twice that of the preceding year. Solar remains the main gate- crusher and it will reach the 100 GW mark in January 2025 and also hit 132.85 GW in November (Press Information Bureau, Government of India, 2025). During one day in July, July 29, 2025, a record day, renewables supplied more than 51 percent of the total electricity requirement of the country.
8.0 State-Wise Distribution of Renewable Energy
The renewable energy power of India has been well-placed in states where the potential of solar and wind energy is high. Rajasthan has also become the leader nationally, especially in solar installations.
| State | Total RE Capacity (GW) | Solar (GW) | Wind (GW) |
| Rajasthan | 37.4 | 32.0 | 5.2 |
| Gujarat | 35.5 | 21.5 | 13.8 |
| Karnataka | 24.0 | 15.0 | 7.7 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 20.0 | 10.0 | 4.4 |
| Tamil Nadu | ~18.5 | 9.0 | 9.5 |
This impetus was further strengthened by the fact that in 2025, viability gap funding was approved for battery energy storage systems (BESS) and the ongoing roll-out of the National Green Hydrogen Mission (CONTINI et al. 2026). India also intends to manufacture 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by the year 2030, which makes this country one of the global centers in terms of production and export. It is this domestic boom that enables India to be able to bargain with a hand of strength and reflect on the power that the westernized voices have to deem India a major emitter, which is balanced by the fact that India is the fourth-largest renewable energy market globally.
9.0 The Paradox of Global Carbon Budgets and Historical Responsibility
The unfair allocation of the world’s carbon budget is one of the main components of the Climate Order Paradox. By the year 2025, the world was recording the highest levels of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), reaching about 38.1 billion tonnes. Although renewables have been witnessed to grow rapidly in most countries, decarbonization of energy systems has failed to counter the increase in global energy demand (Arent et al. 2022). The leftover carbon budget to restrict the warming to 1.5°C is estimated at a mere 170 billion tonnes, which is set to be surpassed after the year 2030 at current rates of global warming.
The 2025 emissions of India increased at 1.4 percent, which was much slower as compared to recent trends, primarily because of the robust renewable growth and decrease in the cooling need in a pleasant monsoon. Conversely, USA and European Union emissions rose (by 1.9 percent and 0.4 percent respectively) in 2025 because of the colder weather, and other reasons, although on a long-term basis are decreasing.
| Region | Projected 2025 Emission Growth | Context / Driver |
| Global Total | +1.1% | Record high fossil CO2 emissions. |
| China | +0.4% | Moderate energy growth, RE expansion. |
| India | +1.4% | Slower growth due to RE surge and monsoon. |
| USA | +1.9% | Increase due to weather/colder months. |
| European Union | +0.4% | Temporary increase after years of decline. |
It is this loss of national policy-making sovereignty by states that is defined by the sovereignty paradox, as states are holding on to the traditional understanding of absolute sovereignty of the state as a global common attribute of the world, such as climate instability need to be met by effective global action. India resolves this through the redefined sovereignty of India through strategic autonomy – playing out the cooperative practices whose outcomes are determined within the country and not dictated (Sinha, 2025).
10.0 India as a Bridge Actor: Leadership in G20, QUAD, and BRICS
The leadership in India is characterized by the capability to become a conciliator and bridge builder in an intensely polarized world. India took an interest in the Global South to the center of the multilateral agenda when it became the Presidency of the G20 in 2023 under the theme One Earth, One Family, One Future.
10.1 G20 Successes and the Green Development Pact
G20, the G20 Summit in New Delhi produced 112 outcomes and documents, compared to the work of previous presidencies, which doubled. Among the success stories was the introduction of the so-called Green Development Pact of Sustainable Future, which incorporates the principles of CBDR and so called Lifestyles of Sustainable Development (LiFE) (Kaushik, 2024). Another successful move that India made was in the establishment of the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA), alongside the United States and Brazil, which was intended to establish a virtual fuel technology and standard marketplace.
10.2 Strategic Minilateralism: The QUAD and ISA
The participation in Marya QUAD shows that India has adopted a strategy of multi-alignment. Although the QUAD places a high emphasis on maritime security and counterterrorism, India has managed to make the group orient towards soft power and climate resilience. Key initiatives include:
- Quad Satellite Data Portal: Providing space-based data for climate and disaster forecasting to regional partners.
- Q-CHAMP: A framework for practical cooperation on climate action and technology transfer.
- Climate-Security Nexus: Utilizing the IPMDA (Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness) to address environmental security and resource competition.
India’s leadership in the International Solar Alliance (ISA) further solidifies its role as a “solutions provider.” Through the ISA, India is executing off-grid solar projects in Indo-Pacific countries like Comoros, Madagascar, Seychelles, and Fiji, projecting its ability to provide global public goods.
10.3 BRICS 2026: Redefining Multipolar Sustainability
India, taking over to become BRICS Chairman on January 1, 2026, has published a bold agenda, named Building Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation, and Sustainability. The BRICS vision of India is on humanity first, where the major issues raised include pandemics and climate change, as opposed to ideological clash.
India’s priorities for BRICS 2026 include:
- Reformed Multilateralism: Making global institutions like the UN and IMF more representative of contemporary realities.
- Framework Declaration on Climate Finance: Operationalizing affordable capital for emerging economies through BRICS-led initiatives (Rached & De Sá, 2024).
- Opposing Unilateral Trade Barriers: Challenging discriminatory climate-related trade measures, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
- Resilient Infrastructure: Leading disaster risk reduction through the CDRI (Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure).
Through the Trump Polar World, India is another country that brings in a moderating variable that keeps the spirit of collaborative climate action going despite the withdrawal of such countries as the United States from international agreements. India has adopted a realistic low-profile strategy, where it promotes the exchange of national currencies but does not take an express anti-Western position to help safeguard its strategic relationship with America and Europe.
11.0 Reforming the Global Financial Architecture and MDBs
One of the main buildings of climate statecraft in India is the global financial architecture reform. Mass finance transferring on a large scale out of the developed countries has not been bringing forth its outcomes, posing a bottleneck to the transition to greenness of the Global South (Garcia, 2024). India claims that climate money must not substitute development lending, but must be part of the growth and infrastructure funding.
Through its G20 presidency, India pushed the “bigger, better, more effective MDBs” agenda. This involves:
- MDB Evolution Roadmap: Encouraging banks to address global challenges like climate change alongside their traditional poverty reduction mandates.
- Local-Currency Lending: Utilizing the New Development Bank and AIIB to reduce exchange rate risks for developing nations.
- Predictable Public Funding: Advocating for “accelerated, adequate and additional” climate finance through the NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal).
India estimates that to have its NDCs in place, developing countries will require an investment of close to 6 trillion before the year 2030. Leading these financial reforms India will make sure that the Global Green Transition does not amount to a transfer of climate burdens amongst the North and the South- a risk has been termed a “Common but Shifted Responsibility” (CBSR).
12.0 The Philosophy of “The India Way” and Multipolar Justice
The Indian way of leadership is explained in the strategic document of S. Jaishankar, the Indian way. According to this philosophy, India needs to be a shaper and not a bystander in the multipolar world. The worldview of India is consultative, democratic, and just yet, founded on stronger realpolitik, surpassing the long-standing dogma.
The shift to multipolar climate justice entails abandoning a position where local communities are represented as victims, and instead, the social and material capacities of the communities are invested in. India focuses on “vernacular” climate action that is action-oriented and bottom-up, which makes the transition fair and inclusive to vulnerable environments (van Eck, 2024). This can be seen in the homegrown attention to the Ecological Citizenship and the Capabilities Approach to the gratification of environmental demands.
Synthesis of Strategic Autonomy and Global Responsibility
| Concept | Application in Climate Order | Strategic Significance |
| Strategic Autonomy | Refusing fossil fuel phase-out timelines while leading the ISA. | Preserves policy space for development. |
| Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam | Pushing for G20 consensus amid US-China rivalry. | Positions India as a global reconciler. |
| Panchamrit Commitments | Net Zero by 2070 and 50% non-fossil capacity early. | Bolsters leadership credibility. |
| Vishwamitra Doctrine | Strategic aid and disaster relief in the Indo-Pacific. | Projects India as a “friend of the world.” |
13.0 Challenges and Future Outlook: Navigating Geopolitical Volatility
India is at a strategic crossroads characterized by the predatory subjugation of climate policy to national interests in key Powers such as the US and China, in spite of its lead in the matter. The spread of US-China rivalry into climate technologies and the development of unilateral border control methods is a threat to the cooperative international climate regime (Mehling, 2025). By being in both the QUAD and BRICS, India is consolidating the competing demands of both alliances and risks of having an over-dependency on a particular side of either security or energy.
Climate order paradox. The climate order paradox will probably become more pronounced in the near future when the remaining carbon budget is reduced. India with its policy as a bridge actor, will play a vital role as a means of continuing the world’s anti-global sovereign actions to protect the sovereignty of development. India is successful in its leadership to change to a multipolar climate justice because:
- Sustaining Domestic Green Growth: Maintaining the rapid addition of RE capacity and grid stability while scaling green hydrogen and storage solutions.
- Effective Minilateralism: Delivering tangible gains through the QUAD, ISA, and GBA to overcome “initiative fatigue”.
- Financial Reform Advocacy: Ensuring that MDBs provide affordable, low-interest capital to the Global South.
- Preserving Autonomy: Navigating the tensions between great powers without being coerced into ideological blocs.
The geopolitical independence of India has been tactfully deployed to turn into an active designer of a new, multipolar climate order. India has provided a way of sustainable international governance by balancing equity and justice with developmental pragmatism to meet the realities of the twenty-first century. This balancing act is not only a diplomatic requirement, but it is a long-term approach towards institutional stability and a more inclusive and democratic global order. The fact that India has transformed into a key player in determining the overall global order is a marker of the conclusion of the Western era of hegemony and the dawn of a more diverse and polycentric system, with climate justice becoming its key, non-negotiable component.
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